Herewith the latest edition of our Interest Rate Barometer. We trust that this will contribute to a broad overview of our view and expected outcome of this week’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
- The interest rate barometer considers the factors influencing the decision of the SARB’s Monetary Policy Committee, as stated in the statement accompanying the previous meeting’s interest rate decision (22 September 2016) as well as developments since the previous meeting, which, in our view, could influence Thursday’s MPC rate decision. The factors are rated on a stand-alone basis as a likely hike, hold or cut and are weighted into three broad categories: global economy (20%), domestic economy (40%) and major inflation drivers (40%) – as per Table 1.
- Of the 13 factors analysed, two support expectations for a hike, nine factors support an unchanged stance and two factors favour a cut. On a weighted basis, this implies a 67% probability of a hold at this week’s meeting.
- Based on our analysis, the Nedbank CIB view is for the repo rate to be left unchanged this week. We are expecting the SARB to revise their CPI profile lower, taking into account possibly lower food inflation and a stronger rand next year. The SARB is likely to reiterate that we are close to the peak of the current hiking cycle, in our view.
- We believe that the rand and the local socio-political risk premium remain key swing factors given their fluidity. Key event-risk in the form of credit rating reviews in the next few weeks, combined with a possible Fed rate hike will also have a bearing on local monetary policy decisions, in our opinion.