By: Mohammed Nalla, Head: Strategic Research, Global Markets at Nedbank Corporate and Investment Banking
Please find attached a copy of our Budget Breakfast presentation where we review the 2017 National Budget as well as discuss our high level views on the macroeconomic context and markets outcomes domestically and globally.
- Domestic fundamentals remain weak but improving
- Overall a pragmatic budget without many unexpected developments.
- Leans heavily on PIT for narrowing the deficit with increasing reliance on a narrower tax base
- Growth forecasts are not particularly bullish and as such are likely realistic.
- Expenditure no massive changes and the expenditure ceiling is largely being kept to, as expected.
- Should be relatively well received by the market and ratings agencies.
- Global growth cycle appears to be favourable and will act as a tailwind
- Global monetary cycle mixed but with building upside pressures
- Structural reform remains a key long term determinant of success among EM’s and especially SA
- Geopolitical developments globally and socio-political developments domestically will remain drivers of tail risks