Economists, strategists and scenario planners have been working tirelessly in recent months to keep abreast of the developing situation as the Covid-19 pandemic, and the measures undertaken by governments to stem the spread of infection, take their toll on global markets.
In our recent Nedbank Private Equity Webinar, Nedbank Group Chief Economist, Nicky Weimar, and guest speaker, Clem Sunter, gave a detailed and compelling breakdown of both the global and local economic trends in the context of the pandemic.
In addition to a detailed examination of market trends across major economic centres around the world in direct relation to their respective rates of infection, Nicky’s insights into the impact of the ongoing lockdown present a comprehensive view of what is the most likely scenario for SA in the coming months.
With us lagging at least two months behind the majority of the developed world in terms of the viral growth curve, and the uncertainty around further easing of the lockdown for the foreseeable future, the country’s prospects for growth and recovery timing are precarious.
While government intervention has been necessary and welcomed at this time, it remains to be seen whether such interventions will succeed in mitigating the worst of the looming recession.
Meanwhile, the reopening of economies in other parts of the world where infection rates have slowed dramatically, offers us an opportunity to observe and potentially to develop a sound strategy for balancing the reopening of our own economy and the management of Covid-19 infection rates on our home shores.
It is also interesting to note the parallels between historic events such as the global economic crisis of 2008, earlier pandemics such the Spanish Flu and the Great Depression, and the current situation, and to examine current trends and forecasts against the lessons of these past events.
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