https://cib.nedbank.co.za/2021/07/daily-market-commentary-flash-note-2-august-2021/
Fixed IncomeSA bond yields initially fell on thin liquidity, but quickly lost ground on concerns over renewed load-shedding.
Currencies The rand is now trading firmly on the back foot above 15,0000; the next technical objective is around the 15,3000 level.
CommoditiesGold price lifted by safe-haven demand, amid renewed concerns over global growth, while the oil price edged lower on higher US stockpiles.
EquitiesCentral banks globally are turning more cautious on inflation as signs that “higher prices are here to stay” persist. US tech names continued to rally on strong corporate earnings. Asia, on the other hand, is drifting lower on monetary policy concerns as central banks move to keep a lid on inflation.
10/28SAPPI–/7,3%/7,2%Inflation expected to tick up slightly to 7,3% in September; in August, inflation was driven by higher fuel prices and supply chain-related issues – these remain key issues.
10/28EZMain refinancing rate–/0,0%/0,0%Rates expected to remain unchanged, but further detail on balance sheet management expected.
10/28USGDP 3QA–/2.6%/6.7%US growth expected to have slowed in 3Q due to weaker consumer spending amid the third wave.
10/29SATrade balance–/R35,3bn/R42,4bnTrade surplus expected to narrow in September.
10/29SAPrivate sector credit extension–/2.1%/1.2%Credit demand remains weak, particularly amongst corporates.
10/29EZCPI and GDPCPI expected to rise to 3.7% y/y in Oct, while growth will likely slow marginally in Q3.
10/29SABudget and trade balancesSA’s trade surplus is expected to narrow in Sep due to lower exports, while the budget deficit may narrow on better revenues.
10/29USPCE deflator–/4.4%/4.3%Inflationary pressures in the US
remain elevated, and is expected to rise as a result of higher fuel costs.

Nedbank CIB Market Commentary | CIBMarketComm@Nedbank.co.za | +27 11 537 4091

Source: Nedbank

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