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Institutional Investor Research

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Real yields put real pressure on expected returns

Nominal bonds remain our preferred asset class in South Africa (SA). That said, where we ranked the...

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The ILB curve steepens, and we expect more

The inflation-linked bond (ILB) curve has seen some bear steepening over the past month, with the back end...

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Low but positive GDP growth expected in 2Q

This week will see the release of South Africa’s (SA’s) 2Q GDP data, which could signal a fairly resilient economy...

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Spread between lower inflation and a fiscal bind

We estimate what to expect from spreads on the nominal curve if we are set for more dovish inflation...

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The "weak China trade" is in the rand; we watch the USD

With the USDZAR at 19,00, the “weak China trade” is priced into the rand, in our view. The rand, being...

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Upside for bonds has compressed

Where nominal bonds appeared attractive across the curve for the past two months, much of the upside...

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Bonds, the monetary surprise and fiscal dominance

There is an unwritten rule that says one should favour bonds (or duration more broadly)...

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SARB MPC: Repo unchanged but still hawkish

Against our forecast, the SARB MPC kept the repo rate unchanged at 8,25% due to an improvement...

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SARB: Shifting to a 25 bps hike, from 50 bps in May

We expect SARB to hike the repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) this week. 
 

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SA’s ex-ante real policy rate becomes unattractive

Since the start of this year, South Africa’s (SA’s) ex-ante real rate has been roughly in line with the US’s. 

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Staying the course despite the political economy

Despite a volatile second quarter, when developments in the political economy dominated asset price movements...

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SA inflation to ease gradually in the coming months

Headline inflation is expected to have eased for the second consecutive month in May...

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The rand and bonds are of extreme weakness

The local markets have rallied in the past two weeks. , but still cheap. While any strength is unlikely...

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SA’s growth (and employment) conundrum

South Africa’s (SA’s) GDP growth for 1Q23 will be released this week, with expectations for fractional...

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The wrong time to extrapolate weakness

Our indicators suggest that from a risk/return perspective, this is the wrong time... 

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Inflation expectations a concern

It appears as if inflation expectations have recently become more inelastic than before and may...

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The Budget cost of playing Russian roulette

Uncertainty within South Africa’s political economy has increased further this week...

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Sovereign credit: S&P unlikely to change SA's ratings

Base case: S&P Global Ratings (S&P) may defer its review, given the recency of its post-budget rating action...

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A reflection of current yields

We analyse what the current nominal curve and ILB curves are reflecting in terms of monetary and fiscal policy.

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Eskom debt (solution) scenarios

Eskom’s debt transfer is likely to be South Africa’s largest liability-management exercise. 

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Precious metals sector

Faced with increasing bouts of stage 4 to 6 load shedding and an 18% electricity...

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How loadshedding impacts inflation

Assuming South Africa’s load-shedding intensity normalises between stages 4 and 5 this year, we could see...

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