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Real yields put real pressure on expected returns
Nominal bonds remain our preferred asset class in South Africa (SA). That said, where we ranked the...
The ILB curve steepens, and we expect more
The inflation-linked bond (ILB) curve has seen some bear steepening over the past month, with the back end...
Low but positive GDP growth expected in 2Q
This week will see the release of South Africa’s (SA’s) 2Q GDP data, which could signal a fairly resilient economy...
Spread between lower inflation and a fiscal bind
We estimate what to expect from spreads on the nominal curve if we are set for more dovish inflation...
The "weak China trade" is in the rand; we watch the USD
With the USDZAR at 19,00, the “weak China trade” is priced into the rand, in our view. The rand, being...
Upside for bonds has compressed
Where nominal bonds appeared attractive across the curve for the past two months, much of the upside...
Bonds, the monetary surprise and fiscal dominance
There is an unwritten rule that says one should favour bonds (or duration more broadly)...
SARB MPC: Repo unchanged but still hawkish
Against our forecast, the SARB MPC kept the repo rate unchanged at 8,25% due to an improvement...
SARB: Shifting to a 25 bps hike, from 50 bps in May
We expect SARB to hike the repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) this week.
SA’s ex-ante real policy rate becomes unattractive
Since the start of this year, South Africa’s (SA’s) ex-ante real rate has been roughly in line with the US’s.
Staying the course despite the political economy
Despite a volatile second quarter, when developments in the political economy dominated asset price movements...
SA inflation to ease gradually in the coming months
Headline inflation is expected to have eased for the second consecutive month in May...
The rand and bonds are of extreme weakness
The local markets have rallied in the past two weeks. , but still cheap. While any strength is unlikely...
SA’s growth (and employment) conundrum
South Africa’s (SA’s) GDP growth for 1Q23 will be released this week, with expectations for fractional...
The wrong time to extrapolate weakness
Our indicators suggest that from a risk/return perspective, this is the wrong time...
Inflation expectations a concern
It appears as if inflation expectations have recently become more inelastic than before and may...
The Budget cost of playing Russian roulette
Uncertainty within South Africa’s political economy has increased further this week...
Sovereign credit: S&P unlikely to change SA's ratings
Base case: S&P Global Ratings (S&P) may defer its review, given the recency of its post-budget rating action...
A reflection of current yields
We analyse what the current nominal curve and ILB curves are reflecting in terms of monetary and fiscal policy.
Eskom debt (solution) scenarios
Eskom’s debt transfer is likely to be South Africa’s largest liability-management exercise.
Precious metals sector
Faced with increasing bouts of stage 4 to 6 load shedding and an 18% electricity...
How loadshedding impacts inflation
Assuming South Africa’s load-shedding intensity normalises between stages 4 and 5 this year, we could see...