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Institutional Investor Research
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Real yields put real pressure on expected returns
Nominal bonds remain our preferred asset class in South Africa (SA). That said, where we ranked the...
The ILB curve steepens, and we expect more
The inflation-linked bond (ILB) curve has seen some bear steepening over the past month, with the back end...
Low but positive GDP growth expected in 2Q
This week will see the release of South Africa’s (SA’s) 2Q GDP data, which could signal a fairly resilient economy...
Spread between lower inflation and a fiscal bind
We estimate what to expect from spreads on the nominal curve if we are set for more dovish inflation...
The "weak China trade" is in the rand; we watch the USD
With the USDZAR at 19,00, the “weak China trade” is priced into the rand, in our view. The rand, being...
Upside for bonds has compressed
Where nominal bonds appeared attractive across the curve for the past two months, much of the upside...
Bonds, the monetary surprise and fiscal dominance
There is an unwritten rule that says one should favour bonds (or duration more broadly)...
SARB MPC: Repo unchanged but still hawkish
Against our forecast, the SARB MPC kept the repo rate unchanged at 8,25% due to an improvement...
SARB: Shifting to a 25 bps hike, from 50 bps in May
We expect SARB to hike the repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) this week.
SA’s ex-ante real policy rate becomes unattractive
Since the start of this year, South Africa’s (SA’s) ex-ante real rate has been roughly in line with the US’s.
Staying the course despite the political economy
Despite a volatile second quarter, when developments in the political economy dominated asset price movements...
Inflation expectations a concern
It appears as if inflation expectations have recently become more inelastic than before and may...