Institutional Investor Research

See all
card image

Real yields put real pressure on expected returns

Nominal bonds remain our preferred asset class in South Africa (SA). That said, where we ranked the...

card image

The ILB curve steepens, and we expect more

The inflation-linked bond (ILB) curve has seen some bear steepening over the past month, with the back end...

card image

Low but positive GDP growth expected in 2Q

This week will see the release of South Africa’s (SA’s) 2Q GDP data, which could signal a fairly resilient economy...

card image

Spread between lower inflation and a fiscal bind

We estimate what to expect from spreads on the nominal curve if we are set for more dovish inflation...

card image

The "weak China trade" is in the rand; we watch the USD

With the USDZAR at 19,00, the “weak China trade” is priced into the rand, in our view. The rand, being...

card image

Upside for bonds has compressed

Where nominal bonds appeared attractive across the curve for the past two months, much of the upside...

card image

Bonds, the monetary surprise and fiscal dominance

There is an unwritten rule that says one should favour bonds (or duration more broadly)...

card image

SARB MPC: Repo unchanged but still hawkish

Against our forecast, the SARB MPC kept the repo rate unchanged at 8,25% due to an improvement...

card image

SARB: Shifting to a 25 bps hike, from 50 bps in May

We expect SARB to hike the repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) this week. 
 

card image

SA’s ex-ante real policy rate becomes unattractive

Since the start of this year, South Africa’s (SA’s) ex-ante real rate has been roughly in line with the US’s. 

card image

Staying the course despite the political economy

Despite a volatile second quarter, when developments in the political economy dominated asset price movements...

card image

Inflation expectations a concern

It appears as if inflation expectations have recently become more inelastic than before and may...