Select Country
Don’t have your Nedbank ID yet?
Nedbank ID single sign-on gives you full digital access to Nedbank’s banking and lifestyle products and services on the Money app or Online Banking.
Log in
Log in to Online Banking or another one of our secured services.
Get in touch
Find us
- Login & Register
- Online Banking
- Online Share Trading
- NedFleet
- Register for Nedbank ID
- About us
- Awards
- Deals
- Explore About us
- Awards
- Deals
- R4bn Tronox deal funds two 100MW solar plants
- Billions to help Redefine build green properties
- Harmony pursues green goals with R10 billion loan
- Cold solutions finance for cold storage facilities
- International Finance Corporation green bond fund
- Envusa energy deal: The way for renewable energy
- Paladin Energy senior debt funding partnership
- Renewable energy wind farm financing
- Stor-Age’s successful inaugural bond auction
- R4bn Tronox deal funds two 100MW solar plants
- Billions to help Redefine build green properties
- Harmony pursues green goals with R10 billion loan
- Cold solutions finance for cold storage facilities
- International Finance Corporation green bond fund
- Envusa energy deal: The way for renewable energy
- Paladin Energy senior debt funding partnership
- Renewable energy wind farm financing
- Stor-Age’s successful inaugural bond auction
- Women of Corporate Investment Banking
- Young Analyst Programme
- Insights
- Articles
- Conferences
- Research
- Explore Insights
- Articles
- Africa's pathway to a climate-resilient economy
- Commercial property trends 2022
- Green energy in the developing world | Nedbank CIB
- How sustainable finance creates value
- How the property sector recovered in 2023
- Two wins for sustainable finance leadership | Nedbank CIB
- FURTHER IMPACT empowerment for entrepreneurs
- There's a new buoyancy around water and sanitation
- What happens when finance meets sustainability?
- Africa’s renewable-energy projects
- Breaking barriers for energy transition in mining
- Africa's pathway to a climate-resilient economy
- Commercial property trends 2022
- Green energy in the developing world | Nedbank CIB
- How sustainable finance creates value
- How the property sector recovered in 2023
- Two wins for sustainable finance leadership | Nedbank CIB
- FURTHER IMPACT empowerment for entrepreneurs
- There's a new buoyancy around water and sanitation
- What happens when finance meets sustainability?
- Africa’s renewable-energy projects
- Breaking barriers for energy transition in mining
- Conferences
- Industry leaders talk innovation disruption | Nedbank CIB
- Market leaders in property finance | Nedbank CIB
- African Mining Indaba | Nedbank CIB
- COP 28 | Nedbank CIB
- South Africa (SA) Auto Week | Nedbank CIB
- IHS Affordable Housing Conference | Nedbank CIB
- Africa Energy Forum | Nedbank CIB
- Digital Immersion Conference | Nedbank CIB
- NCIB’s Zhann Meyer speaks at annual GTR MENA 2025 | Nedbank CIB
- Industry leaders talk innovation disruption | Nedbank CIB
- Market leaders in property finance | Nedbank CIB
- African Mining Indaba | Nedbank CIB
- COP 28 | Nedbank CIB
- South Africa (SA) Auto Week | Nedbank CIB
- IHS Affordable Housing Conference | Nedbank CIB
- Africa Energy Forum | Nedbank CIB
- Digital Immersion Conference | Nedbank CIB
- NCIB’s Zhann Meyer speaks at annual GTR MENA 2025 | Nedbank CIB
- Research
- Investor research
- Investor-research
- How loadshedding impacts inflation | Nedbank CIB
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- SA inflation trends, insights and projections
- SA ex-ante real policy rate
- SARB: Shifting to a 25 bps hike, from 50 bps
- SARB MPC: Repo unchanged but still hawkish
- Bonds, the monetary surprise and fiscal dominance
- Upside for bond investments has compressed
- The "weak China trade" on the rand exchange rate
- Dovish inflation surprises and fiscal constraints
- The ILB curve steepens, and we expect more
- Investor Research
- Investor research
- Investor-research
- How loadshedding impacts inflation | Nedbank CIB
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- SA inflation trends, insights and projections
- SA ex-ante real policy rate
- SARB: Shifting to a 25 bps hike, from 50 bps
- SARB MPC: Repo unchanged but still hawkish
- Bonds, the monetary surprise and fiscal dominance
- Upside for bond investments has compressed
- The "weak China trade" on the rand exchange rate
- Dovish inflation surprises and fiscal constraints
- The ILB curve steepens, and we expect more
- Investor Research
- Solutions
- Corporate Finance
- Financing
- Investing
- Markets
- Nedbank Business Hub
- Transacting
- Explore Solutions
- Corporate Finance
- Financing
- Investing
- Markets
- Research disclaimer
- Research disclaimer
- Nedbank Business Hub
- Transacting
- Sustainability
- Explore Sustainability
- Contact us
- Explore Contact us
The Budget cost of playing Russian roulette
Uncertainty within South Africa’s political economy has increased further this week as the now widely publicised deterioration of the relationship between South Africa and the US has gathered momentum. While the rand has reached our target of R19,00 against the USD, bond yields have moved well beyond what we expected. At this point, bond yields reflect substantial fiscal risk, in our view.
Worsening political economy; exports to the US (and growth) at risk
South Africa risks falling out of the AGOA trade agreement with the US, which would threaten around USD3,4bn worth of exports. Our initial estimates suggest that South Africa’s GDP growth could decline by almost 1% during the first year of exclusion from the AGOA.
The Budget implication of three scenarios
We estimate the impact of lower growth amid rising political tension with the US on South Africa’s fiscal position and the resultant impact on bond yields. We present three broad scenarios – our current base case, exclusion from the AGOA and a scenario where more punitive measures are taken against the country.
Reaction of bond yields to each scenario
We simulate our fair-value estimate for the 10-year bond yield in each scenario. Exclusion from the AGOA could see South Africa’s bond yield rise by around 60 basis points (bps) higher than where it would have been under a fiscal outcome projected by the Budget. What is also clear is that at current levels, the 10-year bond yield is pricing in plenty of country risk already.
Keep an eye on debt levels and debt-servicing costs
Based on the National Treasury’s (NT’s) own modelling analysis from the Budget and using the market pricing currently (inflation 100 bps higher, yields 100 bps higher and a rand that is R2/USD weaker), the debt level would need to rise by R84,4bn, while debt-servicing costs should increase by R6,5bn.