Select Country
Don’t have your Nedbank ID yet?
Nedbank ID single sign-on gives you full digital access to Nedbank’s banking and lifestyle products and services on the Money app or Online Banking.
Log in
Log in to Online Banking or another one of our secured services.
Award-winning in sustainable finance and digital
Deals
- R4bn Tronox deal funds two 100MW solar plants
- Billions to help Redefine build green properties
- Harmony pursues green goals with R10 billion loan
- Cold solutions finance for cold storage facilities
- International Finance Corporation green bond fund
- Envusa energy deal: The way for renewable energy
- Paladin Energy senior debt funding partnership
- Renewable energy wind farm financing
- Stor-Age’s successful inaugural bond auction
Women of Corporate Investment Banking
Young Analyst Programme
Articles
- Africa's pathway to a climate-resilient economy
- Commercial property trends 2022
- Green energy in the developing world | Nedbank CIB
- How sustainable finance creates value
- How the property sector recovered in 2023
- Two wins for sustainable finance leadership | Nedbank CIB
- FURTHER IMPACT empowerment for entrepreneurs
- There's a new buoyancy around water and sanitation
- What happens when finance meets sustainability?
- Africa’s renewable-energy projects
- Breaking barriers for energy transition in mining
Conferences
- African Mining Indaba | Nedbank CIB
- COP 28 | Nedbank CIB
- South Africa (SA) Auto Week | Nedbank CIB
- IHS Affordable Housing Conference | Nedbank CIB
- Africa Energy Forum | Nedbank CIB
- Africa Down Under Conference 2024 | Nedbank CIB
- Industry leaders talk innovation disruption | Nedbank CIB
- Market leaders in property finance | Nedbank CIB
Research
- Investor research
- Investor-research
- How loadshedding impacts inflation | Nedbank CIB
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- SA inflation trends, insights and projections
- SA ex-ante real policy rate
- SARB: Shifting to a 25 bps hike, from 50 bps
- SARB MPC: Repo unchanged but still hawkish
- Bonds, the monetary surprise and fiscal dominance
- Upside for bond investments has compressed
- The "weak China trade" on the rand exchange rate
- Dovish inflation surprises and fiscal constraints
- The ILB curve steepens, and we expect more
- Investor Research
Corporate Finance
Financing
Investing
Markets
Nedbank Business Hub
Transacting
- Login & Register
- Online Banking
- Online Share Trading
- NedFleet
- Register for Nedbank ID
- Award-winning in sustainable finance and digital
- Deals
- R4bn Tronox deal funds two 100MW solar plants
- Billions to help Redefine build green properties
- Harmony pursues green goals with R10 billion loan
- Cold solutions finance for cold storage facilities
- International Finance Corporation green bond fund
- Envusa energy deal: The way for renewable energy
- Paladin Energy senior debt funding partnership
- Renewable energy wind farm financing
- Stor-Age’s successful inaugural bond auction
- R4bn Tronox deal funds two 100MW solar plants
- Billions to help Redefine build green properties
- Harmony pursues green goals with R10 billion loan
- Cold solutions finance for cold storage facilities
- International Finance Corporation green bond fund
- Envusa energy deal: The way for renewable energy
- Paladin Energy senior debt funding partnership
- Renewable energy wind farm financing
- Stor-Age’s successful inaugural bond auction
- Women of Corporate Investment Banking
- Young Analyst Programme
- Insights
- Articles
- Conferences
- Research
- Explore Insights
- Articles
- Africa's pathway to a climate-resilient economy
- Commercial property trends 2022
- Green energy in the developing world | Nedbank CIB
- How sustainable finance creates value
- How the property sector recovered in 2023
- Two wins for sustainable finance leadership | Nedbank CIB
- FURTHER IMPACT empowerment for entrepreneurs
- There's a new buoyancy around water and sanitation
- What happens when finance meets sustainability?
- Africa’s renewable-energy projects
- Breaking barriers for energy transition in mining
- Africa's pathway to a climate-resilient economy
- Commercial property trends 2022
- Green energy in the developing world | Nedbank CIB
- How sustainable finance creates value
- How the property sector recovered in 2023
- Two wins for sustainable finance leadership | Nedbank CIB
- FURTHER IMPACT empowerment for entrepreneurs
- There's a new buoyancy around water and sanitation
- What happens when finance meets sustainability?
- Africa’s renewable-energy projects
- Breaking barriers for energy transition in mining
- Conferences
- African Mining Indaba | Nedbank CIB
- COP 28 | Nedbank CIB
- South Africa (SA) Auto Week | Nedbank CIB
- IHS Affordable Housing Conference | Nedbank CIB
- Africa Energy Forum | Nedbank CIB
- Africa Down Under Conference 2024 | Nedbank CIB
- Industry leaders talk innovation disruption | Nedbank CIB
- Market leaders in property finance | Nedbank CIB
- African Mining Indaba | Nedbank CIB
- COP 28 | Nedbank CIB
- South Africa (SA) Auto Week | Nedbank CIB
- IHS Affordable Housing Conference | Nedbank CIB
- Africa Energy Forum | Nedbank CIB
- Africa Down Under Conference 2024 | Nedbank CIB
- Industry leaders talk innovation disruption | Nedbank CIB
- Market leaders in property finance | Nedbank CIB
- Research
- Investor research
- Investor-research
- How loadshedding impacts inflation | Nedbank CIB
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- SA inflation trends, insights and projections
- SA ex-ante real policy rate
- SARB: Shifting to a 25 bps hike, from 50 bps
- SARB MPC: Repo unchanged but still hawkish
- Bonds, the monetary surprise and fiscal dominance
- Upside for bond investments has compressed
- The "weak China trade" on the rand exchange rate
- Dovish inflation surprises and fiscal constraints
- The ILB curve steepens, and we expect more
- Investor Research
- Investor research
- Investor-research
- How loadshedding impacts inflation | Nedbank CIB
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- Investor Research
- SA inflation trends, insights and projections
- SA ex-ante real policy rate
- SARB: Shifting to a 25 bps hike, from 50 bps
- SARB MPC: Repo unchanged but still hawkish
- Bonds, the monetary surprise and fiscal dominance
- Upside for bond investments has compressed
- The "weak China trade" on the rand exchange rate
- Dovish inflation surprises and fiscal constraints
- The ILB curve steepens, and we expect more
- Investor Research
- Solutions
- Corporate Finance
- Financing
- Investing
- Markets
- Nedbank Business Hub
- Transacting
- Explore Solutions
- Corporate Finance
- Financing
- Investing
- Markets
- Nedbank Business Hub
- Transacting
- Sustainability
- Explore Sustainability
- Contact us
- Explore Contact us
- Contact us
- Explore Contact us
Inflation expectations a concern
Inflation expectations a concern
Reezwana Sumad, Walter De Wet
Posted 23/05/2023 2 mins
It appears as if inflation expectations have recently become more inelastic than before and may well remain elevated for longer. There is a further risk that expectations remain more inelastic than before as the country experiences weaker trade integration and rising public debt. On the back of a weaker rand, higher country risk and elevated inflation outcomes and inflation expectations, SARB is expected to hike by 50 basis points (bps) this week. The bias remains for further hikes at future meetings.
Business inflation expectations have accelerated well above analysts’
Anecdotal evidence in the economy, amid a worsening electricity crisis, suggests businesses are experiencing mounting cost pressures. Inflation expectations, as surveyed by the BER, have shown that business inflation expectations are well above analyst forecasts, and this differential is currently at a 13-year high. The former may be more relevant for actual inflation at this stage, given that businesses (are price setters and) could incorporate this higher cost into prices.
Sensitivity of inflation expectations to inflation shocks over time
Following the adoption of inflation targeting in South Africa (SA) in the early 2000s, inflation expectations in SA have become less sensitive to macro shocks (and more anchored around the target band). Our own analysis suggests that by 2020, this sensitivity has fallen 10-fold. However, our findings also suggest that in the post-pandemic period, the sensitivity of inflation expectations to macro shocks may have doubled relative to the pre-pandemic period.
SARB likely to remain hawkish and hike by 50 bps this week
Since the March MPC meeting, inflation has surprised to the upside, the USDZAR is 8,7% weaker and the oil price is up 5% in rand terms, while global food prices have begun to tick up. SA’s real rate differential to the US’s remains uncompetitive – given rising country risk, the one-year-ahead real rate differential to the US remains too low to attract or even sustain foreign capital flows to SA. All of the above point to a SARB that remains hawkish in spite of weaker economic growth, with the potential to hike further in July.
We revise our CPI forecast higher, due to a weaker rand
We now revise our inflation forecast up, to 6,4% this year, but still believe there are upside risks to this estimate. And, while we expect inflation to fall to 4,9% in the following two years, the risks to these estimates as well, remain to the upside. With our updated inflation estimates, we now see inflation falling marginally below the 6% upper target band only in August (from June previously). For April 2023, we expect a marginal improvement in headline inflation to 6,9% yoy (from 7,1% in March).